Abstract
The threat posed by mosquito-borne viruses (arboviruses) causing Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), Chikungunya (CHIKV), Yellow Fever (YFV), among other widespread viral infections, represent a global public health concern. In European countries, like Spain, Italy, or France, factors such as global warming, increased human mobility (locally and globally across different latitudes where such diseases are endemic), the presence and spreading of invasive mosquitoes (such as Aedes albopictus), and the existence of confirmed non-autochthonous viremic cases have the potential to cause significant disease outbreaks in disease free regions, as it was reported in France where autochthonous Dengue cases have been recently identified.
Here, we introduce a quantitative method for risk assessment of outbreaks of diseases susceptible to transmission by Aedes mosquitoes in a non-endemic area. Our proposed method is built on the basis of a mathematical model we developed: a modified version of the standard SIRUV compartmental model (that couples the human and mosquito dynamics), adapted to meet the specific features of non-endemic areas. By using only the latest entomological data (related to the vector abundance), epidemiological data (confirmed imported and autochthonous cases) and population statistics (population density census), the risk can be estimated and different epidemiological scenarios can be evaluated. Finally, a GIS dashboard has been implemented (using data from the Basque Country, Spain), envisioned as a prototype tool to inform and guide the decision-making by the public health authorities.