Abstract
Influenza A viruses, especially because of their capacity for genetic reassortment and mutagenesis as RNA viruses, and the possibility of cross-species transmission, are considered among the most challenging viruses that threaten human and animal health. The persistence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus and the emergence of multiple novel Avian Influenza viruses in Asia, the Americas, and Europe in 2022 raised concerns in the global community about their pandemic potential (Mosaad et al., 2023). This work aimed to identify opportunities for improvements in the active surveillance system for avian influenza established in Cuba. Risk factors associated with the occurrence of the disease (Leon et al., 2009; Steven et al., 2013; Ferrer et al., 2013) were used to perform a geospatial multi-criteria analysis with a resolution of one km2. Additionally, the existence of contiguous areas between poultry farms (< 3 km2) where the spread of the causal agent could be favored in case of introduction was taken into account. As a result, areas with a very high risk of occurrence were identified, either by exposure or by spread, which was sometimes favored by the contiguity between commercial poultry farms. Accuracy and management of the risk of spread are of great importance because they are often the main determinant of the magnitude of the epidemic. It is concluded that there are strategic and highly important areas where significant resources should be prioritized to strengthen biosecurity surveillance and early warning.
References
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