Abstract
The global spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) following the emergence of the Goose/Guangdong H5N1 subtype in 1996 in China has raised concerns regarding its mechanisms and ecological niches. In that context, our study investigates the impact of poultry intensification on HPAI incidence, an aspect that has so far received limited attention (Gilbert et al., 2018). Specifically, we aimed to analyze the impact of global intensification of poultry production in the occurrence of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to Highly Pathogenic (HPAI) conversions and to predict the probability of conversion events at the country level.
We compiled a dataset of HPAI conversions from 1959 to 2022 (Dhingra et al., 2017), focusing on primary emergence reports while excluding secondary spread within epidemics. Poultry distribution data was obtained from the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) were used to predict conversion events based on proxy variables for poultry intensification: poultry density, output/input ratio (animal production efficiency), and the total stock of poultry.
Our preliminary results show that the large majority of the detected conversion events took place in high-income countries (with highly intensified poultry production systems). Europe remained the center of conversions with n=18 followed by USA with n=9. In Europe, the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, and Italy depict the highest probability of having at least one conversion event. Finally, the output/input ratio showed to be the best predictor of conversion events.
This study highlights the overlooked relationship between poultry intensification and the emergence of HPAI. The concentration of conversion events in high-income countries with intensified poultry production systems suggests their susceptibility to HPAI. Further research will be needed to comprehensively examine the poultry intensification pressures on avian influenza emergence and develop effective intervention measures. These findings might provide valuable insights for policymakers, public health officials, and the poultry industry to mitigate the risks associated with intensified poultry production and safeguard global public health and poultry industries.
References
Dhingra, M. S., Artois, J., Dellicour, S., Lemey, P., Dauphin, G., Von Dobschuetz, S., Van Boeckel, T. P., Castellan, D. M., Morzaria, S., & Gilbert, M. (2018). Geographical and Historical Patterns in the Emergences of Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 and H7 Viruses in Poultry. Frontiers in veterinary science, 5, 84. https://doi-org.bibliosan.idm.oclc.org/10.3389/fvets.2018.00084
Gilbert, M., Xiao, X., & Robinson, T. P. (2017). Intensifying poultry production systems and the emergence of avian influenza in China: a 'One Health/Ecohealth' epitome. Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique, 75, 48. https://doi-org.bibliosan.idm.oclc.org/10.1186/s13690-017-0218-4